Okay so I haven’t update anything related to trading for quite a period of time, but since I found a great opportunity for my readers to make some money, I’d thought it would be great for me to provide some market insights.
Let’s take a look at the fundamentals from USD perspective. This December, the markets will be expecting the Federal Reserve to increase the interest rates to 125-150 basis points. We can see that the traders has already priced this into the market using the Fed Watch Tool.
If interest rates are expected to rise, theoretically speaking demand for USD will rise due to the demand for USD-based assets. This would strengthen USD against other currencies.
On the GBP side, with no deal in sight, this creates much uncertainty for the British economy as well as its currency. David Davis has said that he wishes to wrap up the arrangements with EU on the departure terms by October 2018. He’s also expecting the deal to favour the union more than Britain itself.
My view on this is, whatever the outcome of the deal is, Britain does not stand to benefit from leaving the EU. One should note that 44% of UK’s export goes to the EU. Leaving the bloc would mean trade tariff that would be detrimental to domestic producers who rely on the EU for business. In other words, a fall in exports would mean a reduction in GDP. Should you be bullish or bearish in this situation? I guess that’s a rhetorical question.
Looking at things on the technical side of things, we can see that the pair is currently range-bound between 1.3022 and 1.3340.
I would expect the pair to exit consolidation and head down towards 1.2700 eventually. The first stop to take profit from this short would be 1.295 before the ultimate goal.
On the bigger picture of things, fundamentally and technically, I think the GBPUSD is doomed. I would short on any rallies.